Fonds-Blog-SJB: Mehr. Als Fonds. Kaufen. Von Gerd Bennewirtz.

FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views

09. September 2015 von um 10:00 Uhr

unabhaengigkeitFondsAnbieter-GAM: Emerging markets have beenSJB Fonds in der Presse the big story of the past few weeks, led by China. The combination of collapsing equity prices, the re-pricing of the renminbi and weak purchasing manager indices data has drawn attention towards the slowdown in Chinese growth rates. This has subsequently knocked commodity prices and the associated export-heavy emerging markets, dragging the wider emerging region down as a whole. Slowing Chinese credit growth is the core story to watch from here.

Our observations of the market suggest there is no particularly ‘new’ news to react to. The slowdown in China is no surprise to anyone, and the approximate 3% re-pricing of the renminbi is relatively modest following a period where the US dollar has appreciated by some 30%. Commodity cycles typically run for several years; with significant new capacity in markets like copper, and the associated marginal cost of production effectively being zero, there is no motivation within the industry to cut production and call a halt to the current price slump.

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Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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unabhaengigkeitFondsAnbieter-GAM: It is hard to ascertain what the outcome will be of the Greek situation, but it is becoming clearer that despite the hard line being taken by some policymakers, there is a real desire to keep Greece in the eurozone. Whether this is for geopolitical reasons or for fears of the unknowable consequences of a Lehman-type situation it is hard to know, but there does seem to be marked differences in behaviour between finance ministers and their leaders, particularly in Germany. Mr Draghi has also made it very clear that the ECB is not the body to make what is essentially a political decision. We think that a deal will be done at the last moment but see this as a probability, not a certainty.

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Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views

18. Februar 2015 von um 11:00 Uhr

unabhaengigkeitFondsAnbieter-GAM: Many of the macro trends present in emerging markets (EM) during 2014 have continued into 2015. We remain in an environment of sluggish growth and downward earnings revisions, some of which have been reflected in the corporate results issued so far this year. In some markets we have seen fiscal retrenchment, for example Brazil, where the government is trying to cut costs to balance its budget. Another significant macro trend is the falling oil price – creating a very positive environment for some economies and a very negative one for others. A general decline in interest rates is also occurring as inflationary pressure abates in most EM countries.

Notwithstanding these macro trends, the market is still very positive for stock pickers. It makes sense to focus on earnings revisions and company fundamentals to extract alpha from the market. There is some intra-day and intra-month volatility occurring as investors take profits as companies report slightly better results than expected. However, we still think that equities are responding well to earnings revisions, and this trend is set to continue

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Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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unabhaengigkeitFondsAnbieter-Union Investment: Harter Winter bremst US-Wachstum im ersten Quartal

Der harte Frost hat die US-Wirtschaft im ersten Quartal 2014 stark in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. So lag die am vergangenen Mittwoch bekanntgegebene vorläufige Wachstumsrate für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) mit 0,1 Prozent (annualisiert) deutlich unterhalb der Schätzungen der meisten Volkswirte. Insbesondere die Investitionen fielen schwach aus. Zudem hatten die Unternehmen in den Vorquartalen die Lagerhaltung auf ein hohes Niveau getrieben, sodass eine Korrektur in diesem Bereich nicht gänzlich unerwartet kam. Grund zur Sorge sind diese Zahlen aber nicht, da sie auf einen deutlichen Nachholeffekt im zweiten Quartal schließen lassen.

Frühindikatoren vielversprechend

Zudem entwickelte sich der US-Konsum trotz aller Widrigkeiten sehr positiv. Die Konsumausgaben kletterten im März um 0,9 Prozent gegenüber dem Vormonat und damit so kräftig wie seit fünf Jahren nicht mehr. Auch die privaten Einkommen legten mit 0,5 Prozent stärker zu als von den Volkswirten prognostiziert. Zusammen genommen sind die Einkommens- und Konsumzahlen ein Beleg dafür, dass der grundsätzliche

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Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: The S&P 500 index has recently been trading at all-time highs based on sales multiples. As a result, some observers are becoming jittery, particularly as M&A activity has also risen sharply in 2014, with many companies paying for their acquisitions with stock, rather than cash. However, sentiment indicators have dropped off sharply over the past eight weeks or so, and the relationship between bond and equity fund flows has become more risk-off. While some indicators might suggest the market is becoming overvalued – and not overlooking geopolitical events in the Ukraine and the growth situation in China – we are seeing plenty of technical factors that suggest many of these concerns have become somewhat overblown. For the year as a whole, we are reasonably positive on global equity markets, albeit with somewhat elevated volatility levels.

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Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: 2013 was a good year for both GAM Star Japan Equity and the domestic equity market. So far, ‘Abenomics’ has been a success. The market, measured by the Topix index, rose by 54.4%, while the yen class of the fund was up 57.4%. The reason why Japan was so strong last year was that when the yen began to weaken in September 2012, analysts were predicting earnings growth of 23%. Earnings revisions quickly followed. We ended up at 70% earnings growth in 2012. Earnings growth for Europe, by comparison, was -2.2% and globally it was 6.5%.

The movement in Japanese equities can to a large degree be accounted for by the movement in earnings. 75% of the rally came from earnings growth, with only about 25% from price / earnings (PE) multiple expansion. If one looks at Europe, which was up 15–20%, more than 100% was accounted for by multiple expansion, with earnings actually down year-on-year.

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Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: The main topic in our asset class over the past several weeks has been the currency weakness pretty much across the board in emerging markets. Not only have commodity-exposed countries, such as South Africa, suffered, but also India, for example, which is an importer of commodities. The most obvious victim, as well as the worst performer, has been the South African rand, which is down more than 8% versus the US dollar so far in May. The rand’s movements attract a lot of attention as many investors, especially if they are not dedicated emerging markets specialists, use the currency as a proxy for emerging market risk. The rand is very liquid and traded heavily, tending to overshoot on the downside during times of heightened volatility. SJB. Fonds. Logo.…weiterlesen

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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