FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

23. April 2013 von um 12:00 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: The trends prevailing in the last six months of 2012 have continued into 2013. That is, investors have continued to seek out quality stocks, defensives and stocksFortlaufende Nachrichten zur Schulden und Staatskrise. with positive cash flow. As contrarians, we have sought to avoid these favoured segments of the market. Furthermore, these areas are generally not consistent with our natural style of investing. Given that they have continued to lead the market, however, we are reasonably happy with the funds’ performance for the year to-date.

Japan’s sharp turn for the better has been a significant contributor to the performance of GAM Global Diversified. Optimism has been fuelled by the new Bank of Japan governor’s vocal support of further monetary easing measures, and the new deputy governor’s background in studying the 1930’s depression. Nevertheless, the radical measures announced at the end of the quarter managed to exceed expectations and gave the market another leg up in April, and the yen another leg down. The positive mood has been reflected in global markets as well, although we would argue that the increase in Japanese competitiveness gives out a deflationary impulse to major exporters elsewhere, for example South Korea, China and Germany, which may become more evident in the coming months.

Japan’s sharp move is a reminder of how quickly value can be realised when a group of cheap stocks meet with a real catalyst. To illustrate the rise, of the 29 names GAM Global Diversified holds in Japan, seven have gained more than 50% this year. Only one name has lost ground. Many of the stocks we own struggled with the strong yen and were forced to restructure their operations, a story that went largely unrecognised. The effects of the yen reversal should lead to a significant improvement in their profitability – something we expect to be confirmed in future earnings reports. The stocks may be hit by some short-term profit taking given the speed of the rise, but we do not expect them to give back a significant portion of their gains, unless the yen strengthens materially from here.

The Japanese market could receive an additional boost from any notion of structural reform in the country. The list of areas that could see structural reform is long, for instance the liberalisation of the energy sector, Japan’s consumption tax and the prefecture system. It remains to be seen whether Prime Minster Abe has the appetite for such reforms.

Outside of Japan, we see a bias towards growth over austerity. This, together with lower commodity prices, is supportive of risk assets. The recent fall in the price of gold indicates the same: the lower gold price seems to signal that investors have more faith in government policy and that allows them to deploy capital in more productive ways. Similarly, companies with strong balance sheets may be encouraged to increase their capital expenditures, which would in turn support growth momentum. So far, inflation is not a concern and central banks are able to continue their easy money policies, providing further tailwinds for equities.

However, we are finding it more difficult to identify attractive value opportunities. For example, we see the US market as fairly fully-valued, especially as profitability is so high by historic standards. The counter-argument to that is that interest rates are low and inflation remains in a sweet spot, so a higher-than-normal multiple could be justified. It is difficult to second-guess when the monetary transmission mechanism will spark to life and trigger inflation, but we do know that a move either towards rising inflation or towards deflation would be bad for equities. Combined with the fact that the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is well above the long-term average, we remain cautious and are happy to retain the funds’ somewhat elevated cash balances.

The UK exposure of GAM Global Diversified has declined in recent months, but this is more a reflection of our nervousness about sterling than it is about any stock-specific concerns. The fund had maintained a relatively high sterling exposure, a part of which was the result of our hedging of the yen exposure back into sterling.

GAM Star China Equity had a reasonably good start to the year, but has since given back its absolute performance while continuing to outperform the benchmark index by close to 6% year-to-date (based on the fund’s US dollar share class). The Chinese / Hong Kong equity markets currently seem to be encountering some headwinds. Recently, sentiment has been impacted by renewed growth worries, perhaps because expectations have been overly optimistic. For example, China’s GDP figure for the first quarter showed 7.7% growth year-on-year, which was in line with our 7.5–8% expectations, but seemingly below other forecasts in the marketplace. The slower first quarter was attributable to the new government’s anti-corruption and austerity programmes, which have also been reflected in anecdotal data points, such as restaurant receipts and liquor consumption. In addition, many had extrapolated forecasts from the strong fourth-quarter data, without recognising the impact of restocking. Thus, the latest data has not been a cause of worry for us. The Chinese economy continues to grow, while inflation remains moderate at around 2.1%.

Looking at the market from a bottom-up perspective, we continue to identify interesting themes, such as renewable energy, the internet and, more recently, healthcare. Ironically, following the market correction, we are finding more interesting ideas to include in the portfolio than before, and are currently running a total of around 45 positions in the fund. The recent sell-off has also provided us with some interesting buying opportunities.

At present, investors’ focus is very much on Japan, while we have seen a sell-off in the Chinese / Hong Kong markets. We believe that the risks relating to weaker growth in China are manageable, however. In addition, we think the concern over Chinese local governments’ high levels of indebtedness is overblown. The reason for the debt is that the country’s expanding monetary and fiscal stance in 2008–09 was largely borne by local governments rather than the central government. It represented a transfer of responsibilities, and it therefore follows that any problems at the local level are likely to trigger a transfer of troubled loans on to a centralised balance sheet.

Elsewhere, we are happy with the performance of GAM Star Emerging Asia Equity, which has continued to outperform the MSCI AC South East Asia index. We have given back a bit of performance in recent weeks, however, due to our holdings in the Thai property sector, which has sold off on fears of new policy measures to cool the property market. We took some profits in the sector before the sell-off, but believe that its long-term outlook is positive and are revisiting ideas following double-digit falls. We are also closely monitoring the upcoming election in Malaysia, as the local stock market has been negatively affected by the election overhang since late 2012.





Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.


Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.

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