FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

09. April 2013 von um 12:00 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: GAM World Invest Absolute Financials had a strong start to the year, with the euro class gaining 6.4% over the first quarter. We are pleased with the fund’s performance, keeping in mind that this is a non-directional, low-volatility strategy. In general, we find that financials stocks are once again behaving in line with their fundamentals, ie stock moves are based on the earnings announcements and outlooks of each individual business. This is a favourable development for our strategy, which is based on earnings revisions.

Looking at the performance contributors for the quarter in more detail, the UK insurance sector was very profitable for us. We managed to make money both on the long and the short book. Long positions included Prudential and Resolution. We are seeing good growth opportunities for Prudential, and are happy with the company’s management and the improving cash flow generation. The latter point is also true for Resolution, which offers sustainable dividends in our view. The short book included names that were forced to cut their dividends, which are traditionally rather generous in the UK insurance sector, with the market reacting quite harshly to the news.

Other profitable trades included taking short positions in regional Italian banks, which we continue to hold. The difficulties that these banks face are many. For example, there is the pressure from declining net interest income over the course of this year and next, due to an increase in the cost of funding and the expiry of the ECB’s LTRO programme, which will eliminate the carry trade profits. We also hold a short position in a large German bank, due to concerns over its capital structure. The expected deleveraging on the back of stricter US regulations will squeeze the bank’s earnings power. We are also short banks with a strong focus on Eastern Europe. This is because of the bleak growth backdrop there, with Hungary and the Czech Republic already in recession, and Poland and Romania seeing a slowdown in growth.

Meanwhile, we have started buying private banks in Switzerland, such as Julius Baer and Credit Suisse. Meetings with the managements of both firms lead us to believe that their gross margins are stabilising or even improving, while net inflows are picking up. Ongoing troubles in the eurozone, including the ‘bail-in’ solution in Cyprus, should once again increase the attractiveness of Swiss banks. With regards to Cyprus, we have not been tempted to engage in bets on banks that are active there, or indeed on banks listed in some of the other troubled peripheral countries, such as Portugal. Our approach is to engage

in positions when we have a high degree of confidence in our projections, which are based on stock-specific fundamentals and company announcements. We try to avoid engaging with companies that are dependent on political decisions, which are hard to predict and can be erratic.

Our long positions in US banks performed well in the first quarter. We are now increasing our exposure to specialist mortgage banks, such as Nationstar Mortgage and Fidelity Mortgage Services. We are positive on the US real estate market, in particular on purchase mortgage originations, which we expect to increase.

Looking at the fund’s overall strategy, we are long in European insurers, where we are expecting at least flat earnings for 2013. We are short European banks, where consensus earnings are down by another 9% for this year, following a 30% drop in 2012. We are long in the US, but are scaling down our exposure to US regional banks, where we see little upside potential as we do not expect any further decrease in the cost of credit. Instead, we are starting to focus on mortgage-related names, as mentioned above.

The fund’s beta remains low at around 0.10–0.15, in line with its non-directional investment approach. We see strong alpha potential due to the large discrepancies between winners and losers. There are plenty of companies out there that are performing poorly, while the stronger ones are doing very well.

March proved to be a reasonably good month, despite events in Cyprus unfolding early on. The US dollar class of GAM Star Global Convertible Bond returned 0.7% on the month and 2.3% for the quarter. Our offshore product, GAM Convertible Bond Hedge Fund, also closed comfortably in positive territory.

Issuance got off to a good start in March, with deals being announced in European household names, such as Air France and Melia Hotels. The US was the biggest region for issuance. While the issuance we saw did not always represent good value for money, overall we believe there is no such thing as ‘bad’ new issuance. While deals can be individually poor, new issuance is always positive for the market as it provides greater choice and indicates that issuers are keen to release paper, thereby widening the investable universe.

The largest contributor to our funds’ performance over the month was Japan. We have been employing a policy of increasing our exposure to the country wherever possible, partly through the use of synthetic convertibles. March proved to be the first month where we decided to hedge our position slightly by buying shorter-dated puts on Japanese equity indices, in an effort to avoid short-term market pullbacks impacting long-term performance. For example, looking at our underlying portfolio, we have a duration of approximately two-and-a-half to three years, so we tend to buy protection in the one-to-three-months region, in order to mitigate short-term fluctuations. In this scenario, if markets rise further, we lose a small option premium, but if markets sell off we should have the protection in place to neutralise losses.

We have noticed increased interest from the press regarding our asset class, particularly on the issue of switching from high-yield bonds to convertibles, and why this could now be an advantageous trade. This is a topic we have been commenting on for the past six months or so. The rising press interest, combined with greater issuance, is helping to generate inflows into the asset class. These flows are typically being funded by switches out of high-yield bonds.

Interestingly, the private bank Coutts was recently quoted in The Telegraph newspaper advising its clients to avoid high-yield issues and particularly bank contingent convertibles (CoCo bonds). We have commented on CoCos several times before and remain true to our mantra that new-style bank subordinated debt is not an attractive investment. Coutts echoed this view and warned of the dangers of investing in bonds that could go to zero for no good reason. We were pleased to see this topic, which we have discussed many

 Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.


Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.

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