FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

07. Oktober 2015 von um 11:00 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

unabhaengigkeitFondsAnbieter- GAM: As asset allocators, we are facing a macro environment of global SJB Fonds in der Pressegrowth forecasts that have been revised down and contracting world trade in the first half of the year. China is the obvious culprit, but the West also has recovery expectation issues linked to valuations and growth, which must be adjusted for. Revenues of S&P 500-listed companies have been declining and the global corporate earnings picture is mixed. Considering all these influences, it is not obvious where an equity rally could materialise from.

The contraction in US earnings is linked to the energy crisis, the strength of the US dollar, declining export markets and the slowdown in consumption. While US consumers have been doing OK, they have not resumed pre-2008 spending patterns. But perhaps market expectations are too high. Looking at the price of the S&P 500 versus earnings, in 2012 there was a big up-rating, where a meaningful recovery was being priced in. But these expectations have not been matched by earnings growth.

US personal savings as a percentage of disposable income remain stubbornly high, while household worth as a percentage of net income is increasing – the consumer is becoming richer, yet spending levels are not increasing, despite oil price weakness bringing down energy bills. An attitude shift could be the explanation of the unusual economics.

Auto sales are one area that has partially bucked the cautious consumer trend, but in the US they are more of a necessity than a luxury purchase. Fleet ages have increased from eight or nine years to around 12 years, suggesting vehicles are being changed as a requirement, rather than a treat. Overall, US consumer growth is slower but more sustainable, with splurges being backed by cash, not credit.

Looking at earnings momentum around the world, Europe and Japan currently have the most power behind them. Japan is experiencing a corporate earnings boom, despite the headwinds facing the rest of the economy. On Europe, one note of caution is that because the export boom has been so integral to the Continent’s recovery over the past few years, it would be naïve to assume that earnings could resist the current slowdown in emerging markets. Nevertheless, our asset allocations have an overweight to Europe, based on the strength of the domestic momentum. In the UK, we are positioned neutrally: the economy remains unbalanced with a strong emphasis on consumption and housing, and incessant political dramas.

Overall, our equity stance is neutral. Policy response remains an influential factor for market direction – ECB and BoJ policy meetings in October may provide markets with a boost, even if the policies themselves are not particularly imaginative. In the emerging markets, it looks as though there is more pain to come, although some of the developing areas of Europe, such as Poland and Czech Republic, are interesting.

It has been a very tough year for emerging market equities, including the African continent. Liquidity has decreased substantially and the asset class has suffered from outflows. Looking back historically, the region has experienced a number of crises over the past few years, which have acted as a substantial headwind for equity market performance. These include political instability in various countries, the spreading of the Ebola virus, terror strikes, and most recently the oil and commodity price slump.

The difficult backdrop has meant that the performance of the EUR B-shares of the JB Africa Focus Fund for the year to-date has suffered a decline of 17.1%. This is 2.7% ahead of the 19.8% drop in the DJ Africa Titans 50 index.

The JB Africa Focus Fund currently comprises 40 holdings across 10 countries. The portfolio is trading at around 10.7x forward earnings versus the index at 11.3x, the price to book is 1.25x versus 1.30x for the index, the return on equity is 11.8% versus 11.6%, while the dividend yield is 3.2% versus 2.9%. The tracking error of the fund is around 8.5%. Overall, the portfolio has a slight value tilt.

Looking at the portfolio positioning, we are overweight Egypt and underweight South Africa, which represent the two largest country allocations. The fund’s top holding is Egyptian bank Commercial International Bank, which has substantial exposure to retail lending and is a very well-run business. The bank is on track to deliver 20% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth this year, which is what the management guided last year. It is highly profitable with a 25% return on equity. Loan growth in Egypt is quite strong, with the bank forecasting 25% growth for this year and 35% for next year, making management quite bullish on Egypt’s business cycle.

We are also positive on the real estate and infrastructure sectors in Egypt, which have seen a very sharp recovery in their earnings growth. We are exposed to the infrastructure theme via Elsewedy, which is a power infrastructure provider. It derives

around 80% of its revenues from Egypt, 15% from the GCC region, mainly Qatar, and 5% currently from the rest of Africa. However, the company is trying to increase its footprint across the region, so we expect the latter segment to grow more strongly. The stock is attractively valued, in our view, trading at 8x earnings with a 20% return on equity.

We like the structural story in Egypt, especially relative to other countries in the region. We are seeing an economic recovery, the removal of subsidies, the introduction of reforms and taxes, as well as increased infrastructure spending. Hence, we have retained our overweight.

In contrast, we remain underweight South Africa relative to the index, a position that we initiated back in November of 2013. There, we favour companies that have a geographically diversified revenue stream, which includes MTN Group, a mobile telecommunications company, and Naspers, a diversified media business. Both companies are among our largest portfolio holdings. We also own the South African top-tier bank FirstRand, which manages to consistently achieve earnings growth between 8% and 12% in the low-growth environment that South Africa has been characterised by for the past few years. It is worth noting that we do not have any exposure to commodities in South Africa.

Elsewhere on the continent, the level of market liquidity has dropped considerably in Kenya and Nigeria over the past year. We remain underweight in Nigeria, where the investment sentiment has not really changed since early summer. Before that, there was a brief rally in March ahead of the Presidential elections, but the hype faded quite quickly. Nigerian banks have been cheap for a while, with return on equity in the low-to-mid 20% range and dividend yields of 8–10%. We own Zenith Bank, which is a highly liquid, top-tier bank with little exposure to the oil sector. Our country underweight stems from the fact that there is still no functioning government in place following the March Presidential elections. We would prefer to have some visibility on the government before increasing our allocation to Nigeria.

In Kenya, we moved from overweight to neutral around March/April of this year. At the sector level, we have exposure to banks, which are very well run and, similar to Nigeria, have high return on equity and high dividend yields. We also like the telecoms sector, namely Safaricom, which has been a favourite of investors for some time. The business shows exceptional growth rates and has been the top-performing stock in the fund year-to-date. However, Kenyan stocks are trading at relatively high multiples compared to the rest of the region, which prompted us to reduce the exposure earlier in the year.

The commodities sector has unsurprisingly been the worst-performing sector in the region, and we have a substantial underweight there. We own First Quantum, a low-cost producer of copper, which has suffered amid the downturn, hurting the fund’s performance. We also hold gold miner Centamin, which we like due to its very low cost base and very low capex. The company invested in order to expand its processing plant from 2013 to 2014, and is therefore well-positioned to increase its production, with current costings of just USD 700 per ounce. Despite this sizeable investment, its balance sheet remains debt free and it generates free cash flow. Depending on future global developments, we may increase our exposure to gold mining stocks.

Chinese equity markets were rocked during the third quarter by a combination of government intervention, weak economic data and the surprise change in the renminbi’s exchange rate policy regime. Nevertheless, we continue to identify pockets of investment opportunities, particularly in the services sector. At the macro level, the broad themes of the old economy slowing down, manufacturing coming under pressure and industrial profits weakening did not present any fresh surprises.

The services sector looks attractive based on a PMI number of above 50 and growth in the online sales segment in excess of 40% annually, whereas overall sales are growing at around 10%. Companies are positioning to capture these secular trends, and we have been shaping GAM Star China Equity to benefit from these adjustments for several years. We significantly reduced our allocation to the A-share market towards the end of June. The fund’s top-10 holdings currently account for over 50% of the portfolio, and we have used the general market sell-off to add to our highest-conviction ideas (services, insurance, e-commerce). Outside of the top-10, we have increased our exposure to an auto rentals name and a gaming company. Around 37% of the company’s sales now come from online mobile gaming revenue streams, versus 20% at the beginning of the year.

The portfolio trades on 10x earnings, earnings growth is approximately 16% and dividend growth is around 12%. Post the interim reporting season, we met the management teams of nearly all the names in the portfolio. The consensus is general confidence in the earnings outlooks for the second half of the year – the final quarter of 2015 should be business as usual.



gamGAM. Hintergründig.

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.



Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.

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