FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

18. Juni 2014 von um 10:30 Uhr
Anbieter. Berichten.Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

unabhaengigkeitFondsAnbieter-GAM: The performance of our five risk-rated model portfolios, with their growth positioning bias, was impacted by the market rotation during March and April, following comments from Chairman SJB Fonds in der PresseYellen about the Fed becoming more hawkish and possibly raising rates in six months’ time. However, performance positively rebounded in May, recouping the majority of losses from the previous two months. Across the strategies, our cautious model is currently proving the strongest performer as a result of our underweight exposure to traditional fixed income products.

Over the past six weeks or so we have increased our exposure to Japan – along with adding to our technology and emerging markets exposures in both bonds and equities – bringing us moderately overweight in that market.

In our UK equity positioning we hold three core funds, which are all performing positively year-to-date, although all are struggling to outperform their benchmarks following the rotation. Our developed world exposure has not been a strong contributor to overall returns so far this year, with our Japan exposure proving the primary detractor. However, our overweight exposure to Japan proved beneficial in May as performance rebounded strongly. Our developing market strategy has done better. One of our underlying managers added to their India exposure prior to

the country’s elections, and we also added a new manager to the line-up ahead of this event – both of these trades proved beneficial to the strategy’s short-term performance.

Looking at our thematic exposures, we have been positioned overweight technology for some time, which negatively impacted performance in April as our specialist manager suffered a significant drawdown. The fund has subsequently bounced back and we plan to retain the position as it brings quality cyclical exposure to our models. In contrast, our private equity exposure continues to deliver steady positive returns despite the asset class’ volatile nature.

Our fixed income strategy holds the greatest number of underlying funds, with the standout performer being a credit manager who focuses on financial debt. To express our aversion to UK Gilts, we have a small exposure to a manager who is positioned short short-dated US Treasuries and Gilts with negative duration on their portfolio. Unfortunately this positioning has not yet proved correct this year as yields have been compressed even closer towards zero. On a more positive note, our emerging market debt exposures have done well over the past few months.

In absolute return, we have added a new exposure to a US equity long / short manager to help diversify the book’s focus away from its global macro tilt.

To summarise our macro views, the biggest change we have made is to take our emerging market exposure up towards a neutral / overweight position, including some frontier markets exposures. We have downgraded our UK and US exposures to modest underweights as we see more limited opportunities compared to Europe and Japan. Our negative view on Gilts remains.

GAM Star Emerging Market Rates, our long / short local emerging debt fund, has gained 4.6% year-to-date (USD class to 10 June). Our trading strategy in Russia and Turkey has worked well this year, both from the long and the short side. A long exposure to the Indian rupee was also beneficial. The standout trade on the long side was in Brazilian bonds, but exposures to Poland and Mexico also generated positive returns. In Mexico, for example, the central bank just announced a surprise rate cut. Meanwhile, a short position in US Treasury futures detracted from performance. However, we intend to keep the trade as an insurance policy for the moment.

Our long-only strategy, which we run under the Julius Baer brand, has also performed well year-to-date, with the US dollar class up 6.2% to 10 June. The fund experienced a sharp turnaround in early February, when it was down around 5% after a very weak January. It is pleasing to see the fund recover its losses so quickly and to generate strong alpha over the benchmark subsequently.

Major contributors to portfolio performance were long bond positions in Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia and India. All three elements of return played their role, ie carry, bond price appreciation and favourable currency movements. The fund’s outperformance versus the benchmark was helped by an around 8% off-benchmark position in India. The yield available in India is very attractive at around 8.5%, while the trade itself is not crowded as the market is difficult to access for foreigners.

Our underweight to Russia prior to the crisis in Ukraine was also beneficial. The rationale for the underweight was our macroeconomic assessment of the deteriorating current account surplus against a backdrop of capital outflows. We were also underweight Turkey, where social unrest and concerns over the central bank’s independence put pressure on the market. The central bank was then forced to hike rates aggressively by more than 400 bps to support the weakening Turkish lira. We managed to avoid the worst of the sell-off, but built a position subsequently and were therefore able to capitalise on the rebound.

We currently have three major themes across our portfolios: First, given our confidence in the economic recovery of the US and the eurozone, we favour emerging market exporters that sell into the developed world, such as Mexico and Poland. Second, we prefer countries that have seen favourable current account adjustments, such as Turkey and India. Third, we remain cautious on commodity exporters and are therefore underweight or short in South Africa, Peru and Chile.

In emerging markets (EM), export growth is very important for the currency outlook. For the past three years, EM export growth has been very weak, and EM currencies have depreciated as a result. In our view, this is about to change. Developed market (DM) demand and DM import growth have started to rise, and we expect EM export growth to rebound in the coming months. This would be consistent with stable EM currencies.

Demand growth had been negative in the eurozone until a few quarters ago, but surged from -2.4% year-on-year at the end of 2012 to +0.8% year-on-year at the start of 2014. The US demand recovery stagnated in the first quarter of 2014 on higher mortgage rates, bad weather and a decline in inventory accumulation, but we expect stronger demand in the second quarter. And as demand picks up, we expect DM import growth to follow. The rebound is already evident in the data: in recent months, DM import growth has reached its highest level since 2011.

An interesting conundrum has presented itself: The correlation between DM imports and EM exports has always been extremely close. In recent months, however, DM import growth has picked up, whereas EM export growth has stagnated. A growing view in the marketplace is that this relationship has broken down, with developed countries trading more among themselves and buying less from emerging countries. We see little evidence in support of this view, and believe the current breakdown is probably due to timing issues, one-off events or data problems, some of which may be linked to China. We expect the correlation to reassert itself in the coming months, with EM export growth rebounding to close the gap.

With domestic demand growth in DM moving at 2.5% and import growth likely remaining at around 5%, we should see EM exports grow once again by around 10%. That growth would support stable or slightly appreciating currencies. Stable currencies make the available yield in the emerging market universe that much more attractive. Furthermore, the dispersion of returns across the individual countries is picking up, presenting more opportunities for active managers, including on the short side. So the overall environment for the asset class and for the outlook for our funds has improved materially.

 

Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.

 

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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