FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

14. Mai 2014 von um 10:30 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

unabhaengigkeitFondsAnbieter-GAM: April was a difficult month for performance and there seems to be something of a conundrum occurring in equity markets at present. Those companies with the strongest share price performance year-to-date are among those we would classify as being the worst businesses. These include companies such as Commerzbank, Fiat, Air France, Peugeot and Telecom Italia. Such businesses typically produce a return on capital employed (ROCE) well below the cost of capital over the course of a cycle, and in many cases these companies have produced a ROCE below the cost of capital every year over the last decade. As a consequence most fundamental managers do not own such stocks and have suffered poor relative performance during the last 6-8 weeks. However, as such companies are value destructive their relative outperformance does not last long even though the ‘trade’ from discounting returns that are absolutely woeful to merely dreadful can be sharp.

We have recently added exposure to the Italian-listed World Duty Free to both funds. The company owns the duty free franchises for most of the Spanish and UK airports. In Spain, there is evidence of a recovery in passenger numbers with nearly 10% growth year-on-year. In the case of the UK, there should be growth at both Heathrow and Stansted. In the medium term, the company should also be a beneficiary of the growth in Chinese tourism, as those visiting the UK in particular tend to have a higher spend than average. The stock is cheap on cash flow metrics and is growing quickly.

Another stock worth commenting on is BG, the British multinational oil and gas company which features in GAM Star European Equity. While the company has had some difficulties in the last 18 months, over the long term it has performed very well. The board recently announced that it had removed the CEO and is seeking a far greater focus on asset realisations to unlock value. We think there is some chance that the company is now ‘in play’, but irrespective see very significant value.

Also of note is Saipem, an Italian oil services stock that did very badly last year. The company is starting to see some good project wins that are helping the shares to recover in value. It is now almost back to trading at EUR 20 per share, which was the level before the company’s second profit warning. We are reasonably confident that if Saipem continues with a good rate of project wins combined with existing projects then the company could begin to recover some of the value it lost last year.

The positioning on the portfolios remains quite cyclical with a combination of ‘growth cyclical’ and ‘structural growth’ companies that are more exposed to longer-term growth in areas such as luxury and longer-cycle industrials. The UK economy is starting to motor along now, which gives us high conviction on the UK stocks we hold in GAM Star European Equity.

The last six to eight weeks have been very challenging for all market sectors, with the exception of credit, which has held up remarkably well. The rotations and elevated levels of market choppiness that began in March intensified in April, with investors switching out of successful plays into cheaper opportunities. Equity long / short managers that chose to hold their preferred themes felt some pain. But the gross exposure levels of both our equity hedge and event driven managers remains at a high, showing managers’ conviction in their own trades and reinforcing our conviction that 2014 should be a solid year for both strategies.

Looking at performance during April, equities had a tough run while macro remained uneventful. In contrast, our relative value managers have done very well, benefiting from the unusual scenario we are seeing of credit staying stable while equities sell off and rates volatility increases. Looking more closely at the sub-strategy, the asset-backed securities sector is where the most interesting opportunities currently lie.

Within global macro, at the beginning of the year we saw many positive indicators linked to the dispersion of growth and policy paths – while these remain valid and should benefit our relative value managers, the more directional trades, such as long US dollar and the Japan reflation theme, are yet to be rewarded.

Moving onto alternative risk premia strategies, while first-quarter market choppiness impacted performance, the approach began to differentiate itself during April, delivering positive performance for the month.

April delivered some evidence of select systematic managers beginning to unwind positions. Lots of managed futures strategies began trading equities in 2013 (following numerous years of avoiding the asset class), favouring the growth sectors and particularly technology. This subsequent unwinding helps to explain some of April’s disappointing numbers, with some long / short names posting double-digit losses for the year as a result of April’s shift.

Alongside the asset-backed security space, we are also seeing some opportunities in the event driven sector, and here our overweight exposure has delivered positive performance. With the benefit of hindsight we probably positioned into this trade a few months too early, but nevertheless we see numerous small and mid-cap deals coming through, most typically US restructuring stories. Conversely, despite the hype surrounding Europe’s distressed assets story, we are not seeing many true opportunities come through for this market. Where we do buy into European opportunities, this is typically through equity long / short managers.



Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.


Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.

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