FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

26. März 2014 von um 10:30 Uhr
Anbieter. Berichten.Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: There are a few areas that are causing the market concern at present. Japan has been in something of a ‘giveback’ phase since the peak of the euphoria in May last year. The Japanese market can cause some frustration, but the important thing is to be patient and stay invested there, although this has been a negative for GAM Global Diversified so far this year. However, we did reduce our Japan allocation ahead of the most recent weakness, which has been beneficial. Our investment in Japanese banks has been disappointing. The banks are of very good quality and they are relatively cheap compared to the more favoured bank stocks in other parts of the world.

If things get significantly worse, then the Japanese government will do whatever it takes to support the economy; this could take the form of quantitative easing although it is too early to tell. For the moment, we do not think that this is necessary and expect the government to wait and see what effect the raise in the consumption tax will have.

Japan’s next door neighbour China is trying to manage a slowdown, and it remains to be seen how effectively it can do this without causing any shockwaves. If it does have a year of low growth combined with some domestic difficulties there could be some cause for concern. The spat with Japan over territory could also cause a frisson in the market, but again the key is to ride with it.

The same applies to Russia. The Crimea situation has again caused jitters in the market, but the important thing is that Russia’s perception of the West’s attitude post the Crimea annexation is clear, ie should its ambition stretch further than Crimea, it ought to expect a robust answer.

With regard to the US and UK, we need more clarity from policymakers. A policy of low interest rates for an extended period of time does not sit easily with sharp falls in unemployment. This is an issue that needs to be worked through. Within GAM Global Diversified we have ridden out some of the bumps in the market through holding a form of insurance in, for example, gold shares, which have risen 30–40% year-to-date. This has helped smooth performance during the ongoing tug of war between the inflationary and deflationary camps.

Over the last two years a rising tide in markets lifted all the boats. This year, though, will be more challenging. Profit margins are at record levels, which leaves plenty of room for accidents. While a year ago it was perhaps unthinkable to invest in a Greek bank, we nonetheless purchased a holding in Piraeus Bank. After a

substantial rise and the successful bond market raising, we have now modestly reduced the holding.

In general, we like quality stocks that are at a low ebb in their fortunes. We feel that BP is a good example. Rehabilitation stocks, such as insurers Aviva and RSA, also look interesting and we have been building positions in these, as well as in selective mining stocks. Having been out of mining stocks for around three years, we are now seeing Anglo American as an opportunity. Its management should be able to generate some growth irrespective of commodity prices.

We continue to prefer large-cap stocks to their small and medium-sized counterparts. One can use the analogy of the tortoise and the hare – we feel the larger ‘tortoise’ stocks will ultimately win over the next year or so. Once they gain some momentum they have staying power, while the ‘hares’ will run out of steam. We are always looking for opportunities and will take advantage as and when they come along.

Looking back at the two years since the inception of GAM Star Emerging Equity, we are pleased to report a positive fund performance over that period against a backdrop of very challenging markets. The US dollar institutional class of the fund is up 3.6% (from 19/03/2012 to 18/03/2014) against a drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets index of 4.9%.

Emerging markets have had to cope with numerous setbacks and systemic risks over the past two years, making the overall return profile much less profitable than other asset classes, such as emerging market debt. Our view is that a continuation of these systemic risks is very unlikely. For example, we had quantitative easing and the subsequent tapering fears, as well as numerous geopolitical worries. These are all priced into emerging equities now, making valuation levels very attractive, in our view. We would therefore expect to see strong absolute returns over the coming years with less volatility.

The reasons why we are bullish on emerging equities are numerous: First, dividend yields are more attractive now than they have been at any time in the past 20 years, and are particularly attractive versus bonds and credit. Second, the price to free cash flow valuation of the broad market is very attractive. That already discounts the fact that many state-owned behemoths are expropriated of the cash that they generate by the state regimes for their own political agendas. One example is Petrobras in Brazil, whose capex has lately been used by the state for an employment programme, with capex exceeding EBITDA. Third, the asset class has been a tremendous laggard versus emerging debt. The headline MSCI Emerging Markets index in US dollars is trading at around 30% below its peak before the credit crunch, while debt is trading at more than 50% above those levels (measured by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Composite index in USD). Our feeling is that the differential between the two asset classes is currently extreme and should narrow. Finally, the latest worries on Russia and the Ukraine have not helped. But Russia is only 5% of the emerging markets index, and there are plenty of good investment opportunities to be found outside of Russia.

We have recently reduced the fund’s exposure to China from around 29% late last year to around 24% now and may reduce it somewhat further. Investors’ worries about the Chinese reform programme and the potential defaults of domestic trust products could cause further hiccups, but are largely in the price in our view. China is large enough to offer plenty of opportunities, with free cash flow and growth on reasonable credit quality outside of the classic sectors like property, banks or heavy industry. Meanwhile, we increased the allocation to Taiwan over the course of 2013 and have reaped some rewards there.

We find Asia in general a fascinating region to invest in. The valuation differential between developed equity markets and Asian, especially South East Asian, equity markets has widened substantially. Following political turmoil in various countries and subsequent outflows and devaluations, prospective PERs are very attractive.

Given this positive backdrop, we remain fully invested in the fund. Our view is that now is the time to invest rather than taking a step back. Our portfolio is therefore growth-oriented as we expect to see multiple expansion with relatively low volatility over the coming years. Hence, we are quite aggressively positioned, with our holdings generating EPS growth of 16.4% versus the MSCI Emerging Market index of 10.0%. Similarly, the return on equity is 15.8% for the fund and just 12.8% for the index. At the same time, the price we pay for these superior fundamentals is very modest, with a portfolio PER of 10.4 versus 9.7 for the index.






Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.


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