FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

19. März 2014 von um 10:30 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: The S&P 500 index has recently been trading at all-time highs based on sales multiples. As a result, some observers are becoming jittery, particularly as M&A activity has also risen sharply in 2014, with many companies paying for their acquisitions with stock, rather than cash. However, sentiment indicators have dropped off sharply over the past eight weeks or so, and the relationship between bond and equity fund flows has become more risk-off. While some indicators might suggest the market is becoming overvalued – and not overlooking geopolitical events in the Ukraine and the growth situation in China – we are seeing plenty of technical factors that suggest many of these concerns have become somewhat overblown. For the year as a whole, we are reasonably positive on global equity markets, albeit with somewhat elevated volatility levels.

Regarding IPOs, the general consensus seems to be that the market is becoming frothy. But looking at the hard data, we can see that the current level of IPO activity, and the amount of capital being raised, is not particularly elevated compared to historic levels. This view applies to both the market as a whole, and the technology sector more specifically.

Goldman Sachs recently released some interesting research which analyses the relative performance of companies trading at 10x to 15x EV sales ratios. The findings show that these companies tend to underperform on one and five-year views – so never really meet the valuations investors expect for the multiples that they pay. We believe this research is interesting, although one must not overlook that fact that company models today are very different to those of five years ago. The cost of operating a business is now significantly lower than in the past. For example, Facebook can operate with very high margins as the cost of the technology it employs is very low. To get a true view on relative performance, it would be wise to also consider the margin a company is able to obtain. However, the research is certainly useful and we are watching the technology IPO market particularly carefully; it is notable that in 2013 we participated in significantly fewer IPOs than we did during 2011 and 2012.

Most technology IPOs coming to the market now are trading on large sales multiples and are typically jumping to 50–100% premiums on their opening day. While we continue to participate in the IPO market, we are becoming increasingly vigilant as to the valuations of companies to access what opportunities exist, and the realistic potential the firms have to expand into them.


Within GAM Star Technology, our investment themes remain stable, although we have made a few modest adjustments, moving away from some of the mid-cap US internet names in favour of Chinese opportunities, which currently look cheaper than their American counterparts. Our two largest positions here are Tencent Holdings and Youku. We are also increasing our exposure to online security companies. RSA research shows that four of the six largest data breaches seen in history have occurred in the past six months – the Target breach saw 110 million customer records being accessed. As such, internet security is becoming an increasing concern for IT buyers, and we anticipate this becoming a big investment theme for 2014.

In the security sector, which comprises around 7% of the fund, we are investing in both old and new technologies, to reflect the general increase in security spending. Many companies are layering their security options, choosing to retain existing methods while bolting on newer technologies, rather than switching one for the other. We can liken this approach to an office environment, where the introduction of a security guard (the new technology) would not replace the existing doors (the old technology), but instead would complement the long-standing and accepted security system. Among the new technology offerings, we own Palo Alto Networks and FireEye, and the firewall company Fortinet as an older technology investment.

Emerging markets had a very tough start to the year, but bounced back in February. The recovery was driven by Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa – three of the so-called ‘fragile five’. Looking at the global macro picture, market participants are encouraged by the progress that countries are making in mending their trade balances. At the country level, the picture is diverse: The fragile five, which are relatively closed economies, are also making gradual progress, although the road to recovery is still long. Other countries, such as Poland, Mexico and South Korea, are extremely competitive and their finances are very healthy.

We are very cautious on Russia in the short term. Our worry is that potential capital controls might be put in place, which would be a very messy issue for investors to handle. We feel that there is currently too much uncertainty to invest with some degree of confidence, even though many assets are trading at cheap levels. We believe that the potential for sanctions is underestimated by the consensus. The approach of the Russian side seems to be to push until someone pushes back. This means that the chances for the crisis to be solved before some sort of sanctions are put in place are quite small in our view.

Our portfolios are generally long the core countries that have performed strongly for some time now, but we are also long Turkey and India. Our view is that they are less dependent on commodity prices, while they are in a good position to benefit from stronger growth in the US and Europe. Our base case scenario is that growth in 2014 is driven primarily by those two regions, while China will be contributing less to growth than it has in previous years.

With regard to China, we do not expect a severe downturn, but more of a soft landing scenario. Nevertheless, in financial terms this can still feel like a very bumpy ride, with spill-over effects into other emerging markets. For example, China’s softer growth is likely to have an impact on iron ore and copper producers, while oil prices should be less affected. China consumes around 30% of all copper and iron ore and around 10% of the oil that is produced. In the longer run, we are not worried about China, but its clampdown on the shadow banking system and various other policy measures are likely to be felt elsewhere in the short term.







Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.


Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.

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