FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

27. November 2013 von um 11:30 Uhr
Anbieter. Berichten.Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: Bonds have now acquired a reputation for very low returns, which are likely to get eroded by inflation and future interest rate rises. While this is certainly the case for government bonds, where 10- year US Treasuries are yielding less than 3%, it is worth reminding investors that there are areas in the fixed income space where attractive returns are still available. One such area is subordinated debt, where our GAM Star Credit Opportunities (USD) fund is yielding 6.1% as at 31 October. This compares with the yield on the benchmark Barclays US Agg Corporate Total Return index of 3.1%. The higher yield has helped the fund outperform the index year-to-date. To 18 November, the fund has gained 13.5% versus a loss for the benchmark of 1.5%.

The fund’s duration, ie its sensitivity to rising interest rates, is lower than that of the index (4.8 versus 6.9), which should be beneficial in an environment where rates can only go up over the medium term. With half of the portfolio allocated to different types of floating rate notes, the effective duration is even lower, because the prices of these instruments can rise when rates go up, and hence have a negative duration. By way of example, we own a Rothschild floating rate note, which is set against 10-year French government bonds. In November last year, the bond traded at 50% to par. Subsequently, French rates moved up and the bond is now trading at 68%. Not all of this price increase relates to interest rate sensitivity, but it clearly highlights the positive correlation of these types of instruments.

It is useful to note that the concerns around potential losses in bond markets are related to rising interest rates rather than credit concerns. We are seeing fewer concerns on the corporate debt side. The companies we invest in have strong cash flows, profits and balance sheets, while further regulation in the financial sector is forcing banks to become more resilient. We have highlighted the trend towards safer and sounder banks before and nothing has changed there.

A significant portion of our portfolios are invested in short duration bonds or fixed-to-floater notes with high coupons, which provide a good buffer if rates go up. The short duration comes from the fact that these bonds are often callable after typically five years. This is the case with, for example, the Aberdeen 7% perpetual bond. The EFG International 8% is a 10-year bond, but its coupon resets after five years in 2018, also making it low duration. If interest rates go up, this bond will be protected, as the coupon resets at the then 5-year rate plus 6.3%.

Historically, our funds yielded broadly in line with the high-yield market. Strong demand for that asset class has subsequently driven yields lower, and it offers no protection against rising interest rates, unlike our funds. Emerging market debt has also lost some of its sparkle for the moment, in our view.

We do not see further systemic crises around the corner, but remain vigilant nevertheless. Authorities are working hard to eliminate potential breeding grounds for systemic crises, for example in the banking sector.

30 years ago, the focus of policymakers was inflation and the eradication of it, which was seen as distorting, inefficient and having socio-politically unjust effects on the population. The current Zeitgeist is the eradication of the similarly inefficient and unjust effects of worldwide unemployment.

For us, this means that short-term rates will stay lower for longer, which was reiterated this week by Ben Bernanke. We also expect policymakers to target nominal growth rates, which could bring back intermittent inflation fears. Our funds are well-equipped to deal with both sets of challenges. The high coupons provide attractive alternatives to cash and government bonds, while the fixed-to-floaters and floating rate notes will provide protection as and when long-term rates rise.

GAM Multi-Europe is performing in line with underlying equities as represented by the MSCI Europe index, year-to-date, with a return of 19.9% in euro terms (to 18 November). However, this return should be viewed in the context of the fund’s low beta of around 0.3 over one year. This means that we are very pleased with our alpha generation in GAM Multi-Europe. Performance has come from our constructive view on European equities, as well as the declining cross correlation between equities, which meant that as dispersion went up European hedge fund managers became more confident about the size of the gross books they could run.

For the year to-date, the fund’s core three managers are up around 23% on average. Some of the satellite names in the portfolio have delivered similar returns. This strong performance, which has come primarily from high alpha generation, has led a number of the managers to look to cap inflows into their products in order to control AuMs.

On the emerging markets, the underlying managers on the equity side within GAM Multi-Emerging Markets are constructive on the asset class, but have been waiting for better valuation entry points. Until recently, there was no clear catalyst to trigger a re-rating, as the economies had been too reliant on credit at the expense of boosting productivity. Now we are seeing improvements in corporate governance, and valuations are becoming more reasonable on a relative basis.

As a group, our emerging market equity hedge managers are up around 6% on the year (to 31 October), which translates into an outperformance of 550 bps versus the market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.

 

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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