FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

30. Oktober 2013 von um 13:00 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: We have not made any substantial changes to GAM Star China Equity over the past month or so. The sectors that we favour continue to be consumer discretionary, IT, residential property and environmental services. These themes have also driven the fund’s performance year-to-date. We generally prefer sectors that are not vulnerable to government intervention, because at the end of the day China remains a command economy.

Ever since the fund launched, our approach has been to take active positions against the benchmark within a concentrated portfolio of high-conviction ideas. That does not necessarily mean that we trade the portfolio very actively, but our stock and sector allocations are often quite far away from the benchmark. Despite the fact that our current themes have been in the portfolio for at least a year, and in some cases for much longer, they continue to work well.

The fund’s performance over the past few months was helped in particular by positive data points out ofChina, which have strongly benefited our holdings. The good data has also confirmed our long-held view of a more stable recovery this year. However, we do not see growth accelerating significantly from here.

We continue to see an imbalance in China between the quality of growth versus the quantity, which the government aims to address with its reforms. Hence, if we did see growth exceeding around 8%, then the government would very likely push its reformist agenda forward more quickly. We therefore believe that we will have to live with the quid-pro-quo between reform and growth in order to bring the economy onto a more sustainable path. Overall, we see this as a good long-term development for China, although some of these reforms may not necessarily be positive for the economy or certain sectors in the short-run. This is also likely to cause short-term volatility, but we have been successful in the past in taking advantage of these moves.

Although it is early days, we expect the upcoming quarterly reporting season to hold positive news for the fund. The first holding in our portfolio that reported was a Macau gaming operator, which announced strong numbers last week, leading to a spike in the share price. This helped the fund, which holds around 5% in the name. The holding is part of our Macau gaming theme, which accounts for around 15% of the fund. The sector is up just under 80% year-to-date.

At the moment, we have a stark dispersion in sector performance, with IT, for example, up approximately 60% for the year to-date, while energy and materials are down between 15% and 20%. We have done a lot of due-diligence work on these beaten-up sectors over the past three months to uncover value. This highlighted underperformers, such as oil & gas and healthcare, which had been hit by the government’s anti-corruption initiatives. Frustratingly, the healthcare sector, for example, has already snapped back sharply, so we have missed the boat here. Nevertheless, we continue our research work on these laggards.

The main question is whether we are going to see a mean reversion in some of these underperforming sectors. But for this to happen we would have to see growth accelerating back towards the 8–9% range, which we do not foresee. From our point of view, this performance dispersion may therefore persist and even become more acute. Notably, the old economy sectors, such as banks, energy and telecom services, will continue to feel the headwinds of the government’s economic rebalancing policy.

Keeping the above in mind, we are sticking with our portfolio allocation, although valuations in some areas are starting to look stretched. This has meant that cash levels in GAM Star China Equity have risen to around 5% as we are struggling to find interesting opportunities at current levels. For the moment, we are happy to let cash build up until the next set-back in the market or until we find a new theme to invest in.

Demand for yield among investors remains high. We recently purchased a subordinated bond issued by Casino, a major French food retailer, which came in our preferred structure – fixed to floater, where we receive attractive income now and are protected against rate rises in the future. The bond’s coupon is fixed for five years at 4.9%, before re-fixing at the then five-year swap rate plus 382 bps. Demand for this bond was 8–9x oversubscribed, highlighting the appetite for issues offering attractive coupons.

As we have mentioned previously, we have no interests in the peripheral eurozone banks on the basis that we do not want any exposure to potential systemic risks. This being said, the current thesis of banks retaining their earnings and paying lower dividends is benefiting us as bond holders, as it is helping to make the industry safer and more stable, while allowing us to lock into high yields. Indeed our ING bonds are paying out 8%; it is this type of coupon that is helping maintain our positive performance. We continue to selectively buy these types of bonds in the secondary market on days of market weakness.

Year-to-date (to 22 October), GAM Star Credit Opportunities (USD) is up 12.0%. This compares favourably to the benchmark, which is down 1.1%. The fund benefits from its approximate 50% allocation to fixed-rate bonds, which gain when rates go down, like they have done in recent weeks. At the same time, the fund also benefits from its floating rate note allocation, which protects against rising rates.





Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.


Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.

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