FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

23. Oktober 2013 von um 12:00 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: The end of August also marked the end of an underwhelming summer in fixed income and currency markets. Since then, the Brazilian real has been the best-performing currency, as many currencies that had suffered over the summer bounced back. Among these were the New Zealand and Australian dollar as well as the Indian rupee, which were all up between 6% and 9% since the end of August. At the bottom of the league table over the past six weeks was the Norwegian krone. It was equally a mixed period for our currency allocations, as we made money on some positions, while losing on others. For example, the krone has not yet appreciated as we had hoped, partly because the central bank has been trying to weaken the currency.

In fixed income, the PIIGS markets enjoyed a strong recovery, with some of them returning 4–5% over the past six weeks or so. On the negative side, Australian bonds performed poorly. We were positioned long of the former and short in the latter, which helped our funds. We have now reversed the Australia part of the trade and are long that market, specifically in the two- and four-year area. We are also long the Australian dollar, a trade that has worked well so far. Elsewhere, we have been long the pound versus the euro, but have recently reduced this position as the pound’s recovery has gone a bit too far in the short term. Our view is also that the UK economy is recovering faster than economists had predicted, certainly versus the US, which drives our short Gilts / long Treasuries position. Our forecast for 2014 is that the pound will strengthen, at some point, to 80 pence versus the euro.

With regards to the political impasse in Washington, we have been faced with weighing up the very low probability of a disaster versus the impact it might have on the portfolios if this disaster did occur. Our approach is twofold, which includes selling all October-dated T-bills. The potential upside there was very limited, while the chance of a loss was small but not negligible. Second, we have moved to holding volatility via a variety of currency pairs and Treasuries themselves. In any case, we would expect that the US government’s borrowing costs will go up in the future, as investors will simply not trust the government quite as much.

With the lack of US data, the market has gone very quiet. We are holding options on various currencies and will make money if the pair moves by more than, say, 1.6% within a month. Ordinarily, this would not be considered a large move, so we hope that we will at least see a move of that size. The same thinking is behind our put / call straddle strategy in Treasuries.

Generally, we are expecting bond yields to move higher. This outcome relies on four linked events: initially, global optimism

turns into real activity, lifting revenue growth for companies, that non-residential capex spending shall rise and finally long-term jobs be created. Collectively, these would justify the next bear leg in fixed income as well as the next leg in the equity bull market. Our central case is that this sequence of events will occur, and we are positioned accordingly.

We have been increasing our exposure to Italy, Ireland and Spain via bonds, and reducing hedges on Portugal. These four have proved to be the best-performing bond markets over the past 18 months, and now offer yields of around 3% for five to seven years, which we find modestly attractive. The new Spanish bond issues are selling well, reflecting the fact that the financial stresses in the eurozone are partly abating. Italy has not seen much progress yet, but at least has survived the ‘Berlusconi moment’ two weeks ago reasonably well. We have therefore focused our short positions towards France, where we see little progress. Elsewhere, we are underweight the US dollar, as we feel that the themes of housing recovery and shale gas are getting tired.

Both of our funds have delivered strong returns this year, with GAM Convertible Bond Hedge Fund up 9.5% year-to-date (to 8 October) and GAM Star Global Convertible Bond up 7.6% (to 15 October; both in US dollar terms). While the uncertainty surrounding the political situation in Washington remains, we continue to see growth momentum develop globally. However, the long-term catalyst for sustained global growth is US growth – therefore without a consensus, bipartisan agreement among Washington’s politicians then the world’s prospects will be limited, at best.

We continue to hold significant protection within both funds, to account for the bumps in the market that could occur in line with political uncertainties. Over the past month, the funds have slightly underperformed during times of market rally, because our options have cost us money on the upside. However, we view this as preferable to posting significant losses on the downside.

As such, until 8 October when market indicators turned very bullish, we were positioned short the S&P 500 index via short-term put spreads. In addition, we held options on the iTraxx Main index (European investment grade bonds), but have recently reviewed a similar structure in the US.

Looking at some of our recent holdings, Shangri-La, the luxury hotel group, provides an excellent example of convertible bonds performing as they should. We purchased the bond as a way of capturing the bounce in Chinese growth following the fiscal constrictions put in place by the government in 2011. The company’s equity took a hit towards the end of 2011, and the convertible bond price fell in tandem. We retained ownership of the bond through this period with a view to capturing any subsequent bounce in Chinese growth to above the 9% level. While this scenario never manifested, credit conditions have now contracted, leaving the stock at around half of its 2011 value, while the convertible bond is trading at a higher price than we purchased it for, hence we recently exited our position.

Similarly, we purchased the Nipro convertible bond in order to benefit from the turnaround momentum in Japan following any weakness in Japanese Yen – further aided by Abenomics. While the company did little for the first year, its stock started to rally in March 2013 on yen weakness, as we had hoped for. At the stock’s high in May 2013 we placed a stop short against our long bond position, which delivered very strong short-term performance for us, locking the profits we made as the equity rallied. The political uncertainty in the US is currently proving a distraction to what is happening in Japan, so until we see yen weakness we will retain the stop short, although we believe the stock will ultimately rebound.

We also hold Faurecia, the French automotive parts manufacturer. It supplies car parts including bumpers and dashboards across the car industry, providing a good way of playing the global automotive market. Despite the current environment of limited growth, the company’s offshore and emerging market sales figures are very strong, and the company offers significant upside. Hence, this is the type of company we are looking to own, using hedges and shorts as buffers when we identify pockets of credit risk.

Across both funds, the largest exposure remains the Aabar into Daimler convertible – another automotive market play. Aabar is the holding company of Abu Dhabi, and is convertible into

Daimler stock. The position has delivered very strong returns over the past 12 months. Country-wise, our exposure to Japan, at around 26%, is the highest it has been since January 2007 in the convertible product in the funds.

 

 

 

Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.

 

 

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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