FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

01. Oktober 2013 von um 12:00 Uhr
Anbieter. Berichten.Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: Looking at the market backdrop, European companies have seen persistent earnings downgrades by analysts for several years now. Initial growth forecasts at the beginning of each year have been buoyant at 10–12%, but these have subsequently not materialised. For this year, expectations have now dropped to just 1% earnings growth. With economic data in China and peripheral Europe improving, we would expect this trend of downgrades for this year to come to an end. For 2014, growth expectations are currently at 10%, for which, in order to be achievable, we would need to see a material pick-up in economic activity.

• Valuations on European equity markets have increased to around 14x, reflecting a steady upward trend since Mario Draghi’s famous speech around a year ago. In absolute terms, these can be seen as expensive, however, the bond market offers low yields, making such valuations more justifiable. For a significant rise in markets to manifest from here, we would probably have to see some more earnings growth. But since our approach is non-directional, this has little consequence for our strategy.

• As genuine growth opportunities are rare, there is a strong differentiation between companies that are able to deliver on their earnings forecasts and grow in the current depressed environment, and that those that cannot. This is true across sectors. In cyclicals, for example, Smurfit is up over 80% year-to-date, while Sanoma, a Finnish media group, is down more than 20%. In defensives, the German telecom service provider Drillisch is up more than 50% on better-than-expected cash flow generation. On the negative side, some utilities are down 20–30% for the year. Divergent performances like these have helped our funds to perform well.

• Since July, we have seen evidence of economic improvement in peripheral Europe. This is largely because since 2008 we have seen such sharp drops in activity in countries such as Italy that it does not take much for the comparison to look favourable. For example, advertising revenue is down 60% since the peak, so even a small pick-up will translate into growth. Even though we are starting from a low base in many sectors, these improvements help companies’ balance sheets and we have to take them into account. Stocks markets had already started to discount the economic improvements before they actually materialised in the numbers. Many construction companies’ share prices, for example, have doubled. Following this initial phase, which was based mainly on hope, we now need to see the economic

momentum continue in order to catch up with stock markets, and to subsequently allow stocks to rise further.

• The performance of World Invest Absolute Return is slightly negative for September, with the year-to-date return at around 5.8% for the euro class. In the long book, some of our long-held conviction buys have failed to perform in past months, due to a lack of newsflow. This phase of slow newsflow came up against headwinds such as the Fed’s tapering comments. One example is the advertising conglomerate WPP, whose stock did not do much during early summer. We added to it in August on the expectation that its results would surprise on the upside, which indeed they did. The news helped the stock to perform well over the past few weeks. We remain confident in our long book and on the underlying companies’ fundamentals, and view this current lull in performance as an intermittent pause.

• In terms of activity in the long book, we have added some riskier names that should benefit from the observed pick-up in activity in peripheral Europe. As such, we bought the Greek electric utility Public Power Corporation and several Italian banks, including UBI. Despite concerns about the fragility of the Italian political system, we have confidence in UBI, which is trading at just 0.4x book value and has a sufficiently strong capital structure. Its non-performing loans formation is slowing down and its net interest margin is expanding due to a drop in funding costs. This should lead to the first positive revision for the company in five years, which could be a powerful trigger for its share price performance.

• We also bought the Italian insurance company Fondiaria-Sai, which is a merger and restructuring story. The competition in the market is declining, while the stock is not being covered by any international brokers. Once the merger is completed, the stock will comprise a significant percentage of many indices. The valuation is cheap and we would anticipate that the company can achieve its expected earnings targets. Elsewhere, we bought the Dutch bank ING, which is currently undergoing a large-scale restructuring effort, selling off most of its assets. Once completed, it will end up as a local bank in the Benelux and Germany. It should also benefit from improving net interest margins. Overall, we added to some of our long-term favourites and initiated new positions in higher-risk names where we expect superior returns.

• On the short book, we experienced some disappointing performance in recent months, which was caused by sentiment issues. Looking back at the year to-date, we have identified two areas that have failed to perform on the short side. First are growth stocks that have continued to rise despite negative earnings revisions because investors continue to like their long-term growth characteristics. We closed most of these positions by mid-year. Second, we have seen short-term volatility in some French, Spanish and Italian names since July. These went up on the hope that they would benefit from the improvement in economic data. We only bought those names on the long side where we saw clear fundamental reasons for improvements. However, we remain short of others – albeit at reduced levels – where this is not the case. A third of our short exposure is via indices, while we also added some ‘safer’ shorts, where problems have appeared recently that are not yet discounted by the market.

• Our long book trades in line with the market’s P/E ratio of 14x. Analysts expect earnings growth of 17% for our holdings, but we are confident that this figure can be exceeded. Our short book also trades at 14x earnings, but for these stocks analysts expect as much as 30% growth, which we view as far too high. These stocks tend to be generally weaker, and growth rates like these would be hard to achieve even in a more favourable economic environment, let alone in the current one.

• Our proprietary market timing model is currently telling us that our portfolio is oversold by two standard deviations, indicating that now is the right time to increase our gross exposure. This is underscored by the fact that portfolio volatility over the past 20 days was very low. We have therefore started this process, raising the gross exposure of World Invest Absolute Return from 180% to 195%. As our fund managers are currently on research trips meeting company management teams, we would expect the findings to generate new investment ideas in due course, while also increasing the confidence in the stocks we own already. This will further help us to increase the gross exposure of the funds.

 

 

The stagnation of interest rates at zero per cent and continued quantitative easing measures, as well as tapering discussions, have impacted the various hedge fund strategies very differently. Equity-related strategies, such as equity hedge and event driven, have benefited, while macro approaches have found the environment very challenging.

• Over the past three years, we have concentrated the portfolio in GAM Trading II from 30 managers down to 19, with a strong focus on bringing the volatility level back into the 5–9% range.

While we are happy with the alpha potential of the current manager list, we are looking to add on the margin to names that are willing to take on liquid, tactical equity risk because the equity market continues to be where alpha generation is coming from today. Historically, many of the leading macro managers have not traded equities, so we need to be allocated to some that have this expertise. There is a double-digit percentage probability over the next few years that we will remain in an economic environment dominated by central bank communications and actions, where equities are the most supported asset class. Hence, we need managers in our portfolio who are positioned to capture equity upside should this scenario manifest.

• Within GAM Diversity and GAM Institutional Diversity, we have likewise concentrated the portfolios over the past three years from 38 managers down to 18 today. After posting solid returns last year, we cut our oversized position in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and have been building our exposure within the special situations event driven sector and in equity long / short strategies. This has helped GAM Institutional Diversity to be up over 9% year-to-date.

• The portfolio of GAM Institutional Diversity is now fairly balanced at roughly 30% equity hedge, 20% trading, 20% event driven and 30% relative value. The portfolio’s beta measure on a rolling eight-week basis is 0.4 to the S&P 500, which is a little higher than our historical average but within the longer-term range.

 

 

 

Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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