FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

06. August 2013 von um 11:00 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: GAM Star Global Rates got off to a good start in July, but drifted lower towards month-end to close down 0.6%. The entire decline came from currency losses. At the start of July the market consensus was focused on US recovery, with any future Fed tapering action supporting the US dollar. However, the dollar gave up some of its recent gains as a result of a lull in information flow, some dovish comments from the Fed and some slightly more encouraging data coming out of Europe. The trade-weighted dollar is down around 1.5% on the month, although we view the dip only as a short-term correction.

Sterlingalso had an impact on fund performance during July. We like the pound and have been running long positions against the euro. The currency is currently being influenced by two factors. First is the new Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who is expected to issue more aggressive forward guidance. Second, is improving economic data. We suspect that the optimism surrounding the Bank of England’s suspected dovish stance is priced in already, so following the next Governor update, the pound should gain strength, as market participants will focus more on improvements in the underlying economic data. Hence, we plan to maintain our long exposures.

Aside from sterling, we continue to like the Mexican peso where our long position equates to around 30% of the fund’s NAV. We have grown our Norwegian krone exposure to around 20% long; our sterling and US dollar exposures are sized at around 15% of NAV each.

On the short side, our aggressive short on the euro (around 50% of NAV) is our largest exposure, while we are also short the Swedish krona and the New Zealand dollar. Sweden’s economic story is fairly good, but the currency has been strengthening and its major trading partner is Europe. Inflation numbers continue to undershoot targets and pipeline pressures suggest the economy could face disinflation in the future, hence our positioning.

Our interest rate strategies have performed positively for us in July. Our four major themes remain constant: short Korean bonds against a selection of developed market bonds; Mexican swaps, particularly those starting in four or five years’ time; selective curve steepening trades; and the front end of the Swedish interest rate market.

GAM Star Global Rates gained 4.1% for the first half of 2013, with two-thirds of the returns coming from currency trades, which tallies with our risk exposure, which is around two-thirds FX-weighted. The single-largest currency contributor was our basket trade in the Mexican peso, followed by our long US dollar position. Looking at rates, the one-third of returns was split fairly evenly between steepener trades, long positions in the front end of the Swedish curve, and trading short sterling positions against Europe and Switzerland. Looking back at full-year numbers for 2012, returns were split fairly evenly between interest rates and currency.

For the next few weeks, our and the market’s main focus will be on these topics: the next ECB meeting, where we expect Mario Draghi will continue with his dovish rhetoric; the Bank of England’s quarterly review; and the next round of US data points, which should continue to confirm signs of a recovery in the market and provide support to the dollar.

Our growth outlook is focused around a continuing recovery in theUS– being led by consumer spending (which makes up around 71% of GDP), and notably a recovery in the housing market. Only a clear-cut downturn in the US housing market would force us to re-evaluate our current thinking. Among the headwinds to growth, China is our primary focus.

Looking at the emerging markets, the outlook is much more mixed following years of very strong performance. The local current account dynamics of some of the constituent markets are no longer as favourable as they have historically been, and relative and absolute yield levels are less attractive. The asset class still offers reasonable opportunities for investors, but on a much more selective basis.

 

 

 

Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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