FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

23. Juli 2013 von um 12:00 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: As expected, our absolute return bond funds are starting to recover from the impact of the market slump witnessed in May and June. All bonds, bar cash and JGBs, uniformly cheapened in June, with most falling by around 2%. However, since the end of June the universe has displayed a steady recovery. In terms of our holdings, we have not made any dramatic changes, in favour of steady rotations. We have taken profit on some of the TIPS that we purchased early in June following positive performance. We have also been steadily reducing duration as the bond market stabilises after early July’s high point in yields, as the market calms with the release of mostly benign economic data. We have trimmed our long US dollar exposure where appropriate, as the investment thesis of optimistic domestic US growth expectations, the price benefits of shale gas, the ongoing housing market recovery and dramatic fiscal deficit move in the US has become consensus thinking.

Credit Suisse’s assessment of the US Treasury market – which scales from panic to euphoria – is that it was deeply in panic territory, and panics have led towards price stabilisation or rallies in the past. Combined with a lack of startling US economic growth data, this suggests that the bond markets should be reasonably well supported for the summer. In terms of flows across the industry, the surge in net redemptions, which appeared after many years of net subscriptions, has abated in most sectors. This is a further reason to believe that a summer calm may return to most bond sectors, without negating the fear that, longer term, absolute and real pricing of government bonds is still challenging in the US, UK and Japan.

Across our range of absolute return funds, the weighted average duration has come down from around one year to approximately 0.6. Our allocation is relatively small, with only around 8% in the ‘riskier’ markets of Brazil, South Africa and Mexico. These bond markets swooned in May and June, meaning that their aggregate exposures seemed to have had a disproportionately negative impact on overall performance. None of these countries possess very strong growth stories, so we are looking to benefit from bond yields declining once again We have cut our emerging market currency exposure and increased credit default protection in the wider emerging market sector: we only really like the local currency bonds – or interest rate swap equivalents – in a few countries, but those few are quite compelling.

There are currently two separate themes playing out in the emerging markets. First is the tapering of quantitative easing and the perceived end of the bond bull market. If you believe in the bull market thesis, then a lot of currently favoured positions no longer work for investors. For example, following the release of solid US payroll numbers, 30-year Treasures fell by the equivalent of over 18 months’ worth of yield in one afternoon. The level of interest now offered is not very tempting, and this outcome resonates for a number of bond positions. For the levels of volatility involved, investors are looking for higher levels of interest, indicating the market needs to re-price to adjust.

The second issue isChina. The results of a recent Bank of America survey as to what fund managers are currently thinking shows that China is front and centre of everyone’s minds. We have seen a very rapid period of credit growth in the country, which has now reached a level that presents a risk to the overall economic stability of the country. With China being a huge importer of commodities, such risks have potential impacts for commodity markets, of which there are many across the emerging region.

Personally, I am quite pessimistic onChina, although this view is not universally shared across our fixed income unit. Therefore, I am looking to exit weak positions across my markets in anticipation of more discriminate sell-offs, which we see escalating in the second half of 2013. These could target the Asian markets, which have generated rapid credit growth without corresponding economic growth, and the highly leveraged commodity stories, particularly where yields do not support the local currency (such as Peru, Russia and Chile). In GAM Star Emerging Market Rates, our most exposed position is a large short in corporate debt, as the asset class lacks the support of its sovereign peer.

As such, we are shifting our focus towards the emerging market manufacturing centres, which benefit from lower commodity prices, such asHungary,Poland, theCzechRepublicandMexico.

Recent economic data out ofEuropehas been fairly good, although it is being viewed with lowered expectations. Portugal is now tailing Greece in pricing terms, and Spanish and Italian employment rates remain a concern, but these are not issues we foresee blowing up this year. Economic activity seems to be gently bouncing off lows, and the outlook, for the moment, is reasonable.

 

 

 

 

Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.

 

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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