FondsAnbieter- GAM: Weekly Manager Views.

16. Juli 2013 von um 12:00 Uhr
Wie beurteilen FondsAnbieter ihre Anlagerreigionen ? Wie fällt die Analyse der Kapitalanlagegesellschaften (KAG) über Fundamentaldaten, Währungen und Kapitalflüsse aus? Informationen direkt aus dem Research Centern der FondsBranche finden SJB FondsBlogger in der Kategorie "Anbieter. Berichten."

Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter-GAM: Our UCITS-compliant fund, World Invest Absolute Emerging, has a gross exposure of 80%, a net exposure of 8% and a beta of close to zero. The offshore fund, GAM Talentum EmergingSJB FondsSkyline 1989 e.K.. PortfolioManagement. Antizyklisch. Long/Short, is run in line with the UCITS fund, but is 1.5x leveraged. In terms of gross exposure, we are currently at the lower end of our usual range. We reduced the gross exposure recently when we saw the pick-up in volatility and correlation. Additionally, we also sold a number of our long positions.

In terms of performance, the euro class of our offshore fund is up 9% for the year-to-date, the euro class of the UCITS fund is up 5.7%, with the difference in performance explained by the 1.5x leverage of the offshore version. This compares favourably to the emerging market asset class, as the MSCI Emerging Markets index is down just under 12% year-to-date (hedged into euro terms).

The global economic outlook is still weak. The economic surprise index, which tracks whether economic data comes in weaker or stronger than expected, and which we monitor very closely, has seen a large number of disappointing data lately. On the other hand, expectations are now quite low, so there is more room for positive surprises, although we have not yet seen them come through. However, the eventual recovery is being endangered by the tighter financial conditions that we are seeing on the horizon. Consequently, emerging market currencies and bonds have declined since the Fed’s tapering comments. A stronger US dollar is equally detrimental to emerging market equities as it triggers outflows from the asset class.

In this uncertain environment, we are able to find plenty of investment opportunities. Hence, the funds are fully focused on alpha generation, with books of 40 positions each on both the long and the short side. We are seeing our positions react to fundamentals, in particular earnings revisions, and we have already made good gains on the short side during the past few weeks. The recent sell-off has also meant that valuations are starting to look attractive again in many sectors. However, one area that still looks expensive to us is consumer staples.

Looking at single names in the long book, we are generally focusing on growth stories with attractive valuations. Examples in the airline sector include Turkish Airlines and Pegasus. Pegasus is a quickly growing Turkish low-cost carrier similar to Ryanair and had its IPO recently. Another airline we like is Aeroflot in Russia, which we believe has strong potential for positive earnings revision. At the same time, we are short a Latin American airline, as the market there has turned out to be weaker than expected.

A more significant change in the funds’ strategy relates to financials, where we have reduced our exposure, as we struggled to find positive earnings potential. We sold our positions in banks in particular, as these are most affected by the forthcoming tightening in monetary conditions. However, the insurance sector remains interesting for us. We are focused on companies that are exposed to African consumers and to those that return capital to investors. Recently, we switched from Sanlam into Old Mutual, and we also favour Prudential.

As mentioned, we believe that valuations in many consumer stocks are stretched. Hence, we are short several names, for example in South Africa, where consumers are over-leveraged and are cutting back on consumption. However, we also own some longs, where we believe valuations are still attractive compared to the rest of the sector. These include CBD in Brazil, several names in the Philippines, and Magnit, our long-standing holding in Russia.

Looking at the country level, we are long Saudi Arabia. In particular we like the consumer sector, where we are seeing cheap valuations and continued investment by the government, which is supporting real wage growth.

We are also short materials, especially coal producers in China and Poland which are still facing oversupply issues. We are also short a Russian potash producer, as there is a risk of downward pressure on fertiliser prices in a market that is suffering from weaker demand.

We generated good gains for the fund via shorts in Eastern European and Brazilian utilities. The former were hit by weaker power prices due to a slowdown in demand in Europe. The latter suffered from deteriorating sentiment due to the protests and the fact that they are not allowed by the regulator to increase their prices despite inflationary pressures.

Overall, we are seeing plenty of investment opportunities to generate alpha with low volatility.



Über GAM

GAM wurde 1983 als FondsTochter der UBS gegründet. Von 1999 bis 2005 gehörte die Gesellschaft zum Bankhaus Julius Bär. Seit September 2009 ist GAM selbständig. Fonds: 450. Verwaltetes Vermögen: 36,9 Mrd. Euro. Anzahl der Mitarbeiter: 760. Geschäftsführer: David M. Solo.

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.

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