FondsAnbieter-Franklin Templeton: Perspectives from the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

01. August 2013 von um 11:00 Uhr
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Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter- Franklin Templeton: DEALING WITH TALK OF FED TAPERING

The strong rise in US Treasury yields in May and June suggested that financial markets were generally taken aback by signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) that it stood ready toIhre Werbung. Hier? commence tapering its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage bonds (currently valued at up to US$85 billion per month). However, we would argue that markets possibly overreacted to what appears to be a relatively cautious response by the Fed to changing economic circumstances. That caution was evident in the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, released on 10 July, which showed that many Fed policymakers want to see more gains in the US jobs market before they will assent to a slowing of asset purchases.

 Nevertheless, money printing by the Fed cannot go on forever, especially as the US economy has continued to improve, however gradually. This improvement has been most evident in employment numbers. The unemployment rate stood at 7.6% in June, down from 8.1% in September 2012, when the latest Fed bond purchase programme commenced, and the average monthly pace of payroll gains has risen to almost 200,000 in the past six months, compared with 97,000 over the six months before the bond-buying started. There has also been significant recovery in the housing market, as well as improvements in consumer confidence and spending. Yet for all the recent distress in the Treasuries market, the Fed has not changed its stance that the commencement of tapering is dependent on economic data, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that he expects the jobless rate to be about 7% when the Fed halts asset purchases. But if it has taken nine months just to reduce the rate from 8.1% to 7.6%, then a 7% unemployment rate may be some time off, especially as the brightening jobs picture encourages people who had stopped looking for work to be counted in workforce statistics again. In any case, a gradual curtailment of money printing, possibly in late 2014, does not necessarily mean the end of loose monetary conditions. With inflation still sluggish and unemployment still well above the Fed’s 6.5% threshold for possible increases in the federal funds target rate, many observers do not expect policy rates to be raised for quite some time, perhaps 2015. The final gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the first quarter was disappointing—GDP growth was revised down to an annual rate of 1.8% from an earlier estimate of 2.4%—and figures for the second quarter are likely to continue showing the effects of cuts to federal spending, disappointing growth and political turmoil in some US export markets.

 However, US growth is expected by most forecasters, including the Fed, to pick up speed in the second half of 2013. Thus, in the interest of transparency, the Fed felt it appropriate to remind market participants that it will not be around to add ever more liquidity to financial markets. US equity markets generally have weathered the strain caused by Fed comments on tapering comparatively well, suggesting that many investors are confident that a progressive pullback in money printing by the Fed will not have a dramatic effect on what has been a steadily improving economy in which many US corporations have continued to do well. We also believe the hike in bond yields is not likely to derail the US housing recovery. Although housing starts have picked up, the past five years have seen subdued construction activity, and housing affordability has remained high in spite of the recent rise in long-term mortgage rates. Compared with US equities, price volatility in the market for US Treasuries and corporate bonds over the period has been much more violent—the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 1.68% at the beginning of May to about 2.50% in early July. But purchasing what have generally been regarded as “safe haven” US Treasuries had become a very crowded trade, and long-term Treasury bond rates had probably become unsustainably low. The Fed’s reminder on tapering has seemingly brought an end to the complacency that underlay massive bond purchases and ushered in a period of greater volatility and increased risk premiums. Those investors who were holding long-term bonds in seeking to gain slightly more yield, hoping they would be able to exit quickly before higher interest rates caused asset prices to fall, have been hurt. Yet we think financial markets as a whole should be able to deal with further, gradual rises in bond yields. The prospect of some curtailment in Fed liquidity to the markets may even afford new opportunities as risk premiums potentially increase to what we would regard as more appropriate levels.

 

Über Franklin Templeton

Franklin Templeton Investments ist eine der größten Investmentgesellschaften der Welt. Templeton wurde 1940 von Sir John Templeton gegründet. Die Gründung von Franklin erfolgte 1947 durch Rupert H. Johnson. Franklin ist für seine Expertise auf dem US-amerikanischen Markt bekannt. Im Oktober 1992 schlossen sich die beiden Gesellschaften zur Franklin Templeton Gruppe zusammen, in die 1996 Franklin Mutual Advisers als weiteres Unternehmen integriert wurde. Weltweit verwaltet Franklin Templeton Investments ein FondsVermögen von rund 726 Mrd. US-Dollar für institutionelle und private Anleger. 1992 wurde die Niederlassung in Frankfurt gegründet. Für Anleger in Deutschland verwaltet Franklin Templeton rund 21 Mrd. US-Dollar und ist damit einer der größten ausländischen Anbieter von Publikumsfonds.

 

Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.
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