FondsAnbieter-Franklin Templeton: Perspectives from the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

26. September 2013 von um 11:00 Uhr
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Bei der FondsAuswahl zählt die Unabhängigkeit vom Anbieter!FondsAnbieter- Franklin Templeton: The US economy has continued to grow apace. In late August, the Commerce Department revised upward ist estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth to an annual rate of 2.5%, more than twice the rate recorded for the previous quarter. Thus, the US economy has been managing to weather the drag caused by federal government retrenchment and the higher taxes that kicked in at the beginning of this year. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing came in at a higher-than-expected 55.7 in August, up from 55.4 in July, and well above the 50 line dividing expansion from contraction. PMI data for August also showed the US services sector expanding at its fastest rate since 2005. Consumer and corporate confidence remains buoyant, and the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in recent weeks has come in consistently below the levels seen at the same time last year.

At the same time, there have been some blips in the growth story. August retail sales were weak and new home sales have fallen, likely reflecting recent rises in mortgage rates. In addition, paltry gains in income and higher federal taxes have also weighed on growth. Capital goods spending for July also declined from the previous month, and market observers believe that two of the main factors behind the second-quarter growth spurt—the trade balance and inventories— could actually have a negative impact going forward. Part of the upward revision to the second-quarter GDP number was due to retailers restocking their shelves at a faster pace than originally estimated, so they may face less of a need to build inventories in the coming months in light of the weak retail and durable goods numbers for July. Although the official unemployment rate dropped to 7.3% in August, the last couple of jobs reports generally have been considered a mixed bag. In addition, the challenges facing a number of emerging markets as a result of a reversal of capital inflows have led to a rise in the value of the US dollar, hurting prospects for US exports. Finally, the possibility of US intervention in Syria has been having an impact on oil prices, with Brent crude changing hands at just under US$120 a barrel in London at the end of August, up substantially from just over US$100 at the end of June.

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for 17 and 18 September, was being seen as a possible venue for greater clarification regarding a “tapering” of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) monthly asset-purchase programme—although, at time of this writing, lower-thanexpected job growth figures for August and downward revisions in job growth for the previous two months may lead the Fed to stay its hand. Nonetheless, sentiment in the US has remained generally upbeat, and the start of tapering is likely to be only a matter of time. Fears about tapering explain in large part the recent renewed volatility seen in financial markets, as well as the growing difficulties of policymakers in a number of emerging-market countries. But given recent jobs figures, any immediate action by the Fed in terms of reducing monthly asset purchases is likely to be modest, in our view. Moreover, the US central bank is not proposing to stop stimulating the economy, merely to trim the amount of support it provides. Indeed, with tapering already considered inevitable, the markets’ attention has turned progressively to “forward guidance.” The Fed has stressed that it is in no hurry to raise overnight rates, and that it will wait to see the unemployment rate fall to about 6.5% before doing so. In testimony before Congress in June, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke even suggested that a fall in joblessness to 6.5% would “not automatically result in an increase in the federal funds rate target” if inflation continues to remain as tame as it has been. Yet futures markets recently brought forward their expectations for a first hike in short-term rates somewhat (from early 2015 to late 2014), and FOMC statements will be closely parsed for even the slightest indication that the Fed is shifting from its current “dovishness.”

Analysis of Fed statements will become even more intense as a new Fed chairman is set to be appointed to replace Ben Bernanke, whose term ends in early 2014. The markets are naturally anxious to understand how an incoming chairman will react if the US economy continues to make progress. One of the main front runners for the job is former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. The feeling that the Fed under Summers might become less predictable and even bolder than it has been under Bernanke may explain in part why futures markets have been bringing forward their expectations for a rate hike. Market participants will also be watching anxiously the approaching federal debt ceiling, especially as final decisions will have to be taken on government spending for fiscal year 2014 (which begins on 1 October).


Speculation that the Fed would start to slow the rate of money printing has led to an outflow of capital from emerging markets since May. The reversal in capital flows has hit a number of local currencies and challenged policymakers to come up with appropriate responses. By way of example, the plunge in the Indonesian rupiah has widened Indonesia’s current account deficit and raised the dangers of imported inflation, forcing Indonesia’s central bank to raise its main policy rate by 50 basis points in late August, even as growth slowed. Also in August, the Turkish central bank ramped up lending rates for the second time in as many months to fight a slump in the Turkish lira. India, which saw GDP growth fall to an annualised rate of 4.4% in the quarter ended 30 June—the lowest rate in four years and half the annual rate seen in the period 2003–2008—introduced new capital controls in mid-August in response to incipient signs of capital flight.

But all is not doom and gloom, and we think talk of a largescale emerging-market crisis seems overblown. We believe the conditions that led to the Asian crisis of 1997–1998 or the Mexican “Tequila crisis” of 1994 are largely absent today. The fixed exchange rates that encouraged external borrowing and led to excessive exposure to currency risk in both the financialand corporate sectors at those times have been abandoned. Along with high levels of foreign currency debt, the worstaffected nations had insufficient reserves with which to fight speculators. None of that appears to hold true today. External debt as a percentage of GDP has declined substantially since the 1990s in many emerging markets. Floating exchange rates and substantial reserves mean today’s emerging-market economies generally are far better placed to defend themselves. And a repeat of the substantial and unforeseen global monetary tightening by the Fed in the mid-1990s that led to the Mexican crisis looks to us highly unlikely. The chance of an even more drastic economic deceleration in China than already seen this year is also considered a major threat to the well-being of emerging economies, but this deceleration appears to have been stopped, thanks to some welltargeted stimulus measures.

While some individual countries face severe challenges because of their dependency on commodities and yawning trade deficits, others, like China, have begun to see some improvement in their fortunes. South Korea’s economy recorded its strongest quarterly growth in more than two years for the three months through to 30 June. Brazil—like India, seen as vulnerable to currency volatility because of its large current account deficit— actually overshot consensus growth expectations with an annualised growth rate of 3.3% in the second quarter. Australia, often seen as a bellwether for the global economy, also defied expectations by growing at an annualised rate of 2.6% in the second quarter.

Nonetheless, uncertainty over the timing and size of Fed tapering has been hurting a number of emerging markets. Recovery in growth in the developed world is making financial assets there comparatively more attractive. A big diplomatic clash over Syria could also lead markets to seek traditional “safe havens” and contribute to further volatility in emerging markets. More long term, the economies of large emerging markets have matured and become more sophisticated over the past 20 years. Their populations have also become older. As a consequence, the rapid emerging-market growth rates seen in the first decade of this century may prove more difficult to repeat.

However, the size of the adjustment in currencies and bond yields since May has already been quite substantial. As a result, many market participants are confident that the underlying growth fundamentals of well-managed economies will once again come to the fore once uncertainties over Fed actions have been dissipated. Furthermore, while growth forecasts for emerging markets have been trimmed, they still remain substantially higher than in the developed world. In July, the International Monetary Fund still expected GDP in emerging and developing markets as a whole to grow by 5% this year and by 5.4% in 2014.1 And on a further positive note, the growth slowdown and fears over financial fragility seem to have helped promote the cause of reform. In India, for example, the parlous health of a banking system dominated by state-owned banks has helped the Reserve Bank of India’s incoming governor to move forward with his plans for a quite radical overhaul of the sector. EUROPEAN OUTLOOK

While some emerging markets seem to be floundering, the economic recovery in the eurozone and in Europe as a whole appears to be gaining some modest momentum. Optimism that the eurozone is turning the corner saw regional equity markets generally outperform their equivalents in the US, UK and Japan during volatile trading in August. And while bond yields in emerging markets have been rising and currencies falling, perceptions that the European debt crisis is easing have meant that Spanish and Italian government bond yields have held steady. Figures from Dealogic also show there has been a sharp increase in corporate and syndicated sovereign bond issuance from peripheral eurozone countries this year, helping to maintain trading volumes in Europe’s capital markets and underscoring improving investor sentiment toward its weakest economies.

Following better-than-expected GDP figures for the second quarter, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its growth forecasts for this year for the eurozone, and notably for the currency area’s two largest economies, France and Germany. Outside the eurozone, the OECD projected UK GDP growing by 1.5% in 2013, up sharply from its forecast of 0.8% in May. The resurrection of UK manufacturing is particularly noteworthy. The Market/CIPS PMI for August showed the strongest growth in activity in twoand a half years. The UK housing market also has been picking up, as has consumer spending. If maintained, the quickening pace of growth may soon cause a dilemma for the Bank of England, whose governor only recently seemed to commit the bank to loose monetary policies for some time to come. The central bank is seen as unlikely to consider tightening policy until unemployment falls below 7% (from 7.8% at end-June), but if the recent growth spurt is confirmed, that threshold may be reached sooner than the central bank was expecting. The August PMI index reading for the eurozone was much lower than in the UK, but also showed manufacturing expanding at its fastest level since May 2011. While the repercussions of the slowdown in emerging markets cannot be ignored, further confidence in Europe’s ability to grow again could prove contagious. Data released by the European Central Bank at the beginning of September showed that borrowing costs for small and mediumsized companies in Spain and Italy fell to two-year lows in July in a sign that economic recovery seemed to be taking hold. There have also been improvements in unemployment in countries where joblessness had reached chronic proportions. Spanish unemployment figures have been improving for several months. The unemployment rate still stood at a horrendous 26.3% in July, but fresh impetus to the jobs market may come from the Spanish government’s plans to radically simplify job contracts. However, Europe still trails the US in terms of growth, and the more sceptical observers point out that eurozone GDP growth of 0.3% in the second quarter (after -0.2% in the first) suggests stabilization in activity rather than a true recovery. Despite some decline in financial pressures and an upturn in consumer and business confidence, the outlook for a solid and lasting recovery in the real economy remains fragile, these sceptics argue. PMI numbers have improved, but there is still considerable capacity underutilization in European industry. Continued support from exports could remain relatively modest, given increased volatility in emerging markets. Additionally, higher funding costs combined with tighter capital reserve requirements and lower debt-leverage ceilings mean that bank lending could remain sluggish for some time. As European corporations are typically more dependent on bank funding than their US peers, the chances of a substantial pick-up in credit (and credit-driven growth) look slight.  There is also a risk that further economic improvements and the lessening of tensions regarding European sovereign debt, alongside voter fatigue with austerity, could cause financially fragile European governments in general to take their foot off the pedal when it comes to pushing through needed reforms. There were few expectations that general elections in Germany would lead to a radical change in how Europe’s leading economy interacts with the rest of Europe. Any newly (re)elected Chancellor will, with his/her European partners, have to deal with a familiar list of issues that includes very high private and public debt levels (and not just in the so-called “peripheral” countries of southern Europe), an incomplete overhaul of Europe’s ailing banking system, and the likelihood of further financial aid and debt write-offs for Greece.

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging market countries involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Such investments could experience significant price volatility in any given year.


Über Franklin Templeton

Franklin Templeton Investments ist eine der größten Investmentgesellschaften der Welt. Templeton wurde 1940 von Sir John Templeton gegründet. Die Gründung von Franklin erfolgte 1947 durch Rupert H. Johnson. Franklin ist für seine Expertise auf dem US-amerikanischen Markt bekannt. Im Oktober 1992 schlossen sich die beiden Gesellschaften zur Franklin Templeton Gruppe zusammen, in die 1996 Franklin Mutual Advisers als weiteres Unternehmen integriert wurde. Weltweit verwaltet Franklin Templeton Investments ein FondsVermögen von rund 726 Mrd. US-Dollar für institutionelle und private Anleger. 1992 wurde die Niederlassung in Frankfurt gegründet. Für Anleger in Deutschland verwaltet Franklin Templeton rund 21 Mrd. US-Dollar und ist damit einer der größten ausländischen Anbieter von Publikumsfonds.


Kategorien: Anbieter. Berichten.

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